Macro & Commodities Desk

Official10 tools

by predictionmarketspicks · JavaScript

Kalshi macro: Fed rate odds, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin edges, 15-min markets, Kelly sizing.

com.predictionmarketspicks/commodities MCP Server

This MCP server provides access to Kalshi-focused prediction markets for commodities and related instruments. It is described as covering live 15-minute markets, perps liquidation, and model edges, including “gold, silver, oil and crypto,” as stated in its description.

🛠️ Key Features

Live 15-minute markets
Perps liquidation
Model edges
Commodities coverage: gold, silver, oil
Crypto coverage (as stated)

🚀 Use Cases

Monitoring short-horizon (15-minute) markets
Tracking perps liquidation events
Using model edge information for decision support

⚡ Developer Benefits

Clear scope centered on the listed market types (gold, silver, oil, crypto)
Market cadence explicitly stated (15-minute)

⚠️ Limitations

Only the described functionality (15-minute markets, perps liquidation, model edges) is supported by the provided data
Additional implementation details are not present in the available server metadata

Topics

ai-agentsclaudefantasy-footballkalshillm-toolsmcpmcp-servermodel-context-protocolnflpolymarketprediction-marketsquantgemini-cli-extensionchatgpt-appclaude-connectorpolymarket-mcpweather-marketskalshi-mcp

Captured live from the server via tools/list.

fifteen_min_board

Use for "what is the ETH 15-minute market doing" and "which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open". Every Kalshi 15-minute up-or-down series — crypto, metals, energy, FX — with window status, YES price, close time, target price, what it settles on and the up rate over the last 96 windows, plus the same window on Polymarket (international) for BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP with each venue's settlement index, and our Bitcoin top-of-hour rule (WATCH mode). Pass series ("eth", "KXBTC15M") or asset_class. Free, no key.

Parameters4

series	string	optional	One series: ticker (KXETH15M) or asset ("eth", "gold", "euro").
asset_class	any	optional	crypto · commodity · currency · all (default all).
open_only	boolean	optional	Only series with a window open right now (default false).
limit	any	optional	Max rows (default 30). Values above 40 are clamped to 40.

Raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "series": {
      "description": "One series: ticker (KXETH15M) or asset (\"eth\", \"gold\", \"euro\").",
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 40
    },
    "asset_class": {
      "description": "crypto · commodity · currency · all (default all).",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "crypto",
            "commodity",
            "currency",
            "all"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "open_only": {
      "description": "Only series with a window open right now (default false).",
      "type": "boolean"
    },
    "limit": {
      "description": "Max rows (default 30). Values above 40 are clamped to 40.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "anyOf": [
            {
              "type": "number"
            },
            {
              "type": "string"
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "type": "null"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

perps_board

Use for "Kalshi perps funding rate" and "how much leverage on Kalshi gold perps". Every Kalshi perpetual future: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage long and short, funding cadence, and what funding has cost a long since launch. Pass asset ("btc", "gold") for one. Free, no key.

Parameters2

asset	string	optional	One perp: symbol or name ("btc", "gold", "XAG").
limit	any	optional	Max rows (default 25). Values above 30 are clamped to 30.

Raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "asset": {
      "description": "One perp: symbol or name (\"btc\", \"gold\", \"XAG\").",
      "type": "string",
      "maxLength": 30
    },
    "limit": {
      "description": "Max rows (default 25). Values above 30 are clamped to 30.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "anyOf": [
            {
              "type": "number"
            },
            {
              "type": "string"
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "type": "null"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

perp_liquidation

Use for "where does a 5x bitcoin long liquidate on Kalshi". Estimates a Kalshi perp's liquidation price and the % move to it from Kalshi's risk parameters (a 5x BTC long is about 8% away, not the 20% the 100÷leverage rule implies), plus fees and expected funding. An estimate; Kalshi's app shows the exact one. Assets: btc, eth, sol, xrp, doge, hype, link, gold, silver, platinum, palladium. Free.

Parameters6

asset	any	optional	The perp. One of: btc · eth · sol · xrp · doge · hype · link · gold · silver · platinum · palladium.
side	any	optional	Direction. One of: long · short.
leverage	any	optional	Leverage, e.g. 5 or "5x". Capped at Kalshi’s maximum for the size and side.
margin	any	optional	Margin in dollars (default 1000). Accepts a number or a numeric string ("+150", "62%", "2.5").
entry	any	optional	Entry price (default: the live price). Accepts a number or a numeric string ("+150", "62%", "2.5").
hold_days	number	optional	Days held, for the funding estimate (default 7).

Raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "asset": {
      "description": "The perp. One of: btc · eth · sol · xrp · doge · hype · link · gold · silver · platinum · palladium.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "btc",
            "eth",
            "sol",
            "xrp",
            "doge",
            "hype",
            "link",
            "gold",
            "silver",
            "platinum",
            "palladium"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "side": {
      "description": "Direction. One of: long · short.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "long",
            "short"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "leverage": {
      "description": "Leverage, e.g. 5 or \"5x\". Capped at Kalshi’s maximum for the size and side.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "margin": {
      "description": "Margin in dollars (default 1000). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\").",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "entry": {
      "description": "Entry price (default: the live price). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\").",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "hold_days": {
      "default": 7,
      "description": "Days held, for the funding estimate (default 7).",
      "type": "number",
      "minimum": 0,
      "maximum": 365
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

commodity_edge

Use for "gold edge today" and "oil or bitcoin trade signal". The Kalshi daily gold, silver or WTI strike, or hourly bitcoin strike, with the largest PMP model edge, as a ticket: side, entry price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge, tier and quarter-Kelly size. Pass tickers[] to check a watchlist. Pro — sign in with PredictionMarketsPicks, or a Pro API key.

Parameters2

commodity	any	optional	Which commodity edge to read (needed for a real answer). One of: silver · bitcoin · gold · oil.
tickers	array	optional	Optional Kalshi ticker watchlist (up to 25) — e.g. paste the tickers from your Kalshi Pro screener or Canvas to get PMP's edge on exactly those markets. Full market or 3-segment event tickers both work. Tickers PMP doesn't model are returned as not_covered (never a fabricated edge).

Raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "commodity": {
      "description": "Which commodity edge to read (needed for a real answer). One of: silver · bitcoin · gold · oil.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "silver",
            "bitcoin",
            "gold",
            "oil"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "tickers": {
      "description": "Optional Kalshi ticker watchlist (up to 25) — e.g. paste the tickers from your Kalshi Pro screener or Canvas to get PMP's edge on exactly those markets. Full market or 3-segment event tickers both work. Tickers PMP doesn't model are returned as not_covered (never a fabricated edge).",
      "type": "array",
      "items": {
        "type": "string"
      }
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

market_pulse

The US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment). The composite and the regime call are free without a key, always, along with 2 category scores; one email returns 4 and Pro returns all six. Use for "how is the US economy", "macro regime", "risk-on or risk-off".

Parameters1

topic

any

optional

macro = the US macro-health composite (the only topic). One of: macro.

Raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "topic": {
      "description": "macro = the US macro-health composite (the only topic). One of: macro.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "macro"
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

fed_rate_odds

Use for "will the Fed cut, hold or hike" and "next FOMC meeting odds". Live Kalshi odds for each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting: the next meeting's full strike breakdown and days-until, the rate path, the current fed funds rate, and a next-meeting cross-venue check against Polymarket and CME futures, with the gap in pp. Free, no key.

Parameters

No parameters.

Raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {},
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

base_rate_gap

Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue. Free, no key.

Parameters3

marketPrice	any	optional	Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
baseRateId	any	optional	Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source). One of: incumbent_reelected · fed_hold_unemp_below_4 · fed_cut_cpi_above_3 · recession_called_12mo · sp500_positive_year · bitcoin_above_100k_eoy · gdp_growth_above_2 · cpi_above_3 · senate_incumbent_wins_primary · vix_below_20_eoy · interest_rate_cut_next_meeting · major_sports_upset.
baseRateValue	number	optional	Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.

Raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "marketPrice": {
      "description": "Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "baseRateId": {
      "description": "Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source). One of: incumbent_reelected · fed_hold_unemp_below_4 · fed_cut_cpi_above_3 · recession_called_12mo · sp500_positive_year · bitcoin_above_100k_eoy · gdp_growth_above_2 · cpi_above_3 · senate_incumbent_wins_primary · vix_below_20_eoy · interest_rate_cut_next_meeting · major_sports_upset.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "incumbent_reelected",
            "fed_hold_unemp_below_4",
            "fed_cut_cpi_above_3",
            "recession_called_12mo",
            "sp500_positive_year",
            "bitcoin_above_100k_eoy",
            "gdp_growth_above_2",
            "cpi_above_3",
            "senate_incumbent_wins_primary",
            "vix_below_20_eoy",
            "interest_rate_cut_next_meeting",
            "major_sports_upset"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "baseRateValue": {
      "description": "Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.",
      "type": "number",
      "minimum": 0,
      "maximum": 100
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

convert_probability

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

Parameters2

value	any	optional	The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("+150", "62%", "2.5").
format	any	optional	Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.

Raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "value": {
      "description": "The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\").",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "format": {
      "description": "Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "probability",
            "american",
            "decimal"
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

calculate_ev

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read. Free, no key. Every PMP engine signal is graded in public: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Parameters2

marketPrice	any	optional	Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
yourProbability	any	optional	Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "marketPrice": {
      "description": "Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "yourProbability": {
      "description": "Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

kelly_size

Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

Parameters4

winProbability	any	required	Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
marketPrice	any	required	Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
bankroll	any	optional	Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("1000", "$1,000").
fraction	any	optional	Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth.

Raw schema

{
  "type": "object",
  "properties": {
    "winProbability": {
      "description": "Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "marketPrice": {
      "description": "Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "bankroll": {
      "description": "Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"1000\", \"$1,000\").",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "number"
        },
        {
          "type": "string"
        }
      ]
    },
    "fraction": {
      "description": "Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth.",
      "anyOf": [
        {
          "type": "string"
        },
        {
          "type": "string",
          "enum": [
            "full",
            "half",
            "quarter",
            "eighth"
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "winProbability",
    "marketPrice"
  ],
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"
}

README.md14 KBView on GitHub

PredictionMarketsPicks MCP

Canonical home: predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp — docs, setup, the live wall and the per-tool track record. This repo is the bridge and the offline calculators; the server lives on the site.

A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform price gaps, Fed rate odds, Kalshi's 15-minute markets and perps (with liquidation estimates), live edge signals, and the in-season NFL model: power ratings, win probability, The Ladder, the weekly prop board and game/prop edges.

Every signal our engines publish is graded against the market that priced it — per tool, wins and losses both, including the engines that lose money. The live record: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record

Endpoint (Streamable HTTP): https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=npm
Registry name: com.predictionmarketspicks/quant (MCP registry)
38 tools — 31 free, 5 Pro, 2 free-with-depth-caps. No key needed for the free set. Four of the free tools are fantasy-draft-only and parked until the 2027 offseason (see below), so 27 free tools answer in-season (the 2026 Senate map and per-race odds joined 2026-09-17; the Kalshi 15-minute board and the two perps tools joined 2026-09-26; the NHL board joined 2026-09-28; the graded track record, the Sleeper league view, start/sit and waiver targets joined 2026-10-11).
Fantasy draft landing page: predictionmarketspicks.com/draft — the eight draft tools, connect instructions, and the model behind the board. During the season four of them answer week-by-week NFL prop questions (player_outlook, explain_player, compare_players, sleepers_and_busts); the other four reopen for the 2027 offseason.

See it work

Gemini CLI: install in one command, ask which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open. (47s demo · setup)
Kalshi vs Polymarket, in one question: ask where the two venues disagree, then whether they agree on the next Fed meeting. (50s demo · setup guide)
Kalshi 15-minute gold & Bitcoin + the BTC perp: live boards and perp funding in one chat. (48s demo · commodity markets)
Claude, ChatGPT & Cursor: paste one URL and ask. (40s demo · Cursor setup)
Kalshi weather edges + Kelly sizing: forecast vs market, then the position size, in one chat. (46s demo · weather)

Connect

One click: Add to Cursor · Add to VS Code · Gemini CLI: gemini extensions install https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp

Any host that speaks Streamable HTTP (Claude Code, Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Cursor) — point it at the URL. Nothing to install:

code

claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=npm

Hosts that only speak stdio — this package bridges one to the other:

jsonc

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "predictionmarketspicks": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["-y", "@predictionmarketspicks/mcp"]
    }
  }
}

That relays the hosted server verbatim — all 38 tools, live data, tool schemas and result payloads untouched. Set PMP_API_KEY in the server's env to unlock the Pro tools; without one you get the free tools at free depth.

code

npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp            # bridge to the hosted quant server (default)
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --draft    # bridge to the fantasy-draft server (half parked until 2027)
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --local    # 6 calculators, offline, no network at all

--local is a self-contained build of the six stateless calculators. It makes no network calls, so it runs in an air-gapped sandbox — but it cannot serve the live engines, the NFL model, or anything that reads a market.

Other hosted surfaces (same registry, same tool objects, different selection — no separate install):

Server	Endpoint	Exposes
`com.predictionmarketspicks/quant`	`https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=npm`	All 38 tools
`com.predictionmarketspicks/fantasy-draft`	`https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-draft/mcp`	The 8 draft tools — four answer in season, four parked until the 2027 offseason
`com.predictionmarketspicks/weather`	`https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp`	The 7-tool weather loop: `weather_board` (every open Kalshi daily-high strike) + `edge_alerts` (weather feed) + the five calculators
`com.predictionmarketspicks/commodities`	`https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp`	The 10-tool macro & commodities desk: `fifteen_min_board`, `perps_board`, `perp_liquidation`, `commodity_edge` (gold / silver / oil / bitcoin), `fed_rate_odds`, `market_pulse`, `base_rate_gap` + three calculators
`com.predictionmarketspicks/elections`	`https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-elections/mcp`	The election odds desk: `senate_map`, `race_odds` (every 2026 Senate, governor and House race on Kalshi), `fed_rate_odds`, `market_pulse`
`com.predictionmarketspicks/crypto`	`https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-crypto/mcp`	The crypto desk: `fifteen_min_board`, `perps_board`, `perp_liquidation`, `commodity_edge` (bitcoin) + three calculators

Tools

Free tools need no key. Pro tools read the live PMP edge engines and require a PredictionMarketsPicks API key ($14.99/mo). Deeper results on the list-shaped tools unlock instantly and free — no key to copy, nothing to install: unlock here.

Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via `--local`

Tool	What it does
`calculate_ev`	Expected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
`kelly_size`	Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating.
`bayes_update`	Update a prior with one or more pieces of evidence; returns the posterior and the per-step chain.
`convert_probability`	Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds.
`base_rate_gap`	Compare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample quality.
`combo_edge`	Grade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, correlation-aware joint probability, negative-correlation trap flag.

Markets — free

Tool	What it does
`fed_rate_odds`	Live Kalshi-implied odds of a Fed rate cut, hold or hike at each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting, plus the next meeting and the current fed funds rate.
`fifteen_min_board`	Every Kalshi 15-minute series live — crypto, gold, silver, oil, natural gas, copper, currencies — with the open window's YES price, close time, settlement source, and how the last 96 windows settled.
`perps_board`	Every Kalshi perp — price, volume, open interest, max leverage, and what funding has cost a long since launch.
`perp_liquidation`	Where a leveraged Kalshi perp position liquidates (an estimate from Kalshi's published risk parameters), with fees and funding over the hold.
`weather_board`	Every open Kalshi daily-high temperature strike in 13 cities — YES price, settlement station, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it.

Politics — free

Tool	What it does
`senate_map`	Every 2026 Senate seat — holder, structure rating, forecaster ratings and the live Kalshi price, closest race first. Unpriced seats return null, never an estimate.
`race_odds`	Live Kalshi odds for one 2026 Senate, governor or competitive House race (by state or district, e.g. "TX-34") — every leg's price, volume and link, plus the forecaster ratings.

Markets — free, depth-capped

Tool	What it does
`find_arbitrage`	Cross-venue price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same contract. Largest gap free; whole board on Pro.
`market_pulse`	US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus six category scores. Composite always free.

NFL in-season — free

Tool	What it does
`nfl_power_ratings`	PWR for all 32 NFL teams — points per game above an average team on a neutral field, with rank and tier.
`nfl_win_probability`	Turn an NFL spread + total into win probability, projected score, and over/cover probability — or pass two teams to derive the spread.
`nfl_ladder`	The Ladder — every Kalshi strike vs our whole distribution (spreads, season wins, props) with the derived verdict: SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED.
`nfl_prop_board`	This week's NFL prop prices venue by venue — every Kalshi strike vs the book consensus, DraftKings/FanDuel lines, Novig/ProphetX, and where the best price for each side actually is.
`ladder_arb`	Ladder Arb Scanner — Kalshi college football + NFL spread/total ladders priced out of order on the same side of the same game: locked arbitrage (buy the low strike, sell the high one) and crossed-mid inversions with the resting orders that capture them.

NHL — free

Tool	What it does
`nhl_edge`	Goal Light — every NHL game and player contract priced against Kalshi, with the book consensus beside it and a 10,000-season simulation for the futures board.
`track_record`	Our graded record per engine (bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, weather, NHL) plus the daily editorial call: W-L, net P/L, a 95% win-rate range and the current model era. WATCH calls are reported apart.
`my_league`	Your Sleeper league by username — each starter beside every Kalshi prop strike on him this week, with the best price per side, opponent, kickoff and OUT/QB-gate flags. Market data only.
`start_sit`	Two to four players side by side — the median Kalshi is pricing for each stat, read off his own strike ladder, plus his anytime-TD price. Market prices only; the call stays yours.
`waiver_targets`	Sleeper's most-added players in the last 24 hours with what Kalshi is pricing each at — filtered to players still available in your league when you give a username.

Fantasy draft desk — half in season, half parked until 2027

Answering in season (free): player_outlook · explain_player · compare_players · sleepers_and_busts — the same names, now about this week: one player's Kalshi prop strikes, why the model prices them there, two to four players side by side, and the players the market over- and underprices.

Parked until the 2027 offseason: draft_board · best_available · who_do_i_draft · adp_market_gaps — still registered (and free), but they answer with a redirect to the in-season NFL tools above rather than a draft answer. They reopen with the 2027 board.

Pro — live edge engines

commodity_edge · scan_mispricings · nfl_edge · nfl_prop_edge · edge_alerts

Trade tickets from the silver, gold, oil and bitcoin engines; Polymarket contracts trading away from the PMP model; NFL game and prop edges; the alerts feed. edge_alerts is the one hybrid: Pro keys get the feed in real time, and without a key the same feed arrives delayed 24h.

All tool descriptions and outputs use prediction-market terminology (trader / position / contract / market analysis).

Source

This repo is the public home of the server: the manifest, the bridge, the offline calculator build, and the docs. The hosted service and its live data are operated by PredictionMarketsPicks — MIT license covers this repository, and no install is required to use the server.

code

npm install
npm run smoke          # offline calculator self-test, no network
npm run smoke:bridge   # bridge self-test against the hosted endpoint
npm start -- --local   # stdio server, 6 calculators

Or run the offline build with Docker:

code

docker build -t pmp-mcp-quant .
docker run --rm -i pmp-mcp-quant

About

Built by PredictionMarketsPicks — independent quant tools and edge analysis for Kalshi and Polymarket, published by The 7 Oracles. Educational analysis, not financial advice.

License

MIT — see LICENSE.

Install

Tools (10)

fifteen_min_boardperps_boardperp_liquidationcommodity_edgemarket_pulsefed_rate_oddsbase_rate_gapconvert_probability

Remote endpoint

Streamable HTTP

Hosted server - connect over the network, no local install.

url

https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry

Add to VS Code Add to Cursor

claude_desktop_config.json

json

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "commodities": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": [
        "-y",
        "mcp-remote",
        "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry"
      ]
    }
  }
}

Desktop config is stdio-only; this bridges via mcp-remote. Native remote: Settings > Connectors.

com.predictionmarketspicks/commodities MCP Server

🛠️ Key Features

🚀 Use Cases

⚡ Developer Benefits

⚠️ Limitations

Topics

fifteen_min_board

perps_board

perp_liquidation

commodity_edge

market_pulse

fed_rate_odds

base_rate_gap

convert_probability

calculate_ev

kelly_size

PredictionMarketsPicks MCP

See it work

Connect

Tools

Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via --local

Markets — free

Politics — free

Markets — free, depth-capped

NFL in-season — free

NHL — free

Fantasy draft desk — half in season, half parked until 2027

Pro — live edge engines

Source

About

License

Install

Remote endpoint

Related servers

Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via `--local`