PredictionMarketsPicks MCP
Canonical home: predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp — docs, setup, the live wall and the per-tool track record. This repo is the bridge and the offline calculators; the server lives on the site.
A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform price gaps, Fed rate odds, Kalshi's 15-minute markets and perps (with liquidation estimates), live edge signals, and the in-season NFL model: power ratings, win probability, The Ladder, the weekly prop board and game/prop edges.
Every signal our engines publish is graded against the market that priced it — per tool, wins and losses both, including the engines that lose money. The live record: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record
- Endpoint (Streamable HTTP):
https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=npm
- Registry name:
com.predictionmarketspicks/quant (MCP registry)
- 38 tools — 31 free, 5 Pro, 2 free-with-depth-caps. No key needed for the free set. Four of the free tools are fantasy-draft-only and parked until the 2027 offseason (see below), so 27 free tools answer in-season (the 2026 Senate map and per-race odds joined 2026-09-17; the Kalshi 15-minute board and the two perps tools joined 2026-09-26; the NHL board joined 2026-09-28; the graded track record, the Sleeper league view, start/sit and waiver targets joined 2026-10-11).
- Fantasy draft landing page: predictionmarketspicks.com/draft — the eight draft tools, connect instructions, and the model behind the board. During the season four of them answer week-by-week NFL prop questions (player_outlook, explain_player, compare_players, sleepers_and_busts); the other four reopen for the 2027 offseason.
See it work
- Gemini CLI: install in one command, ask which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open. (47s demo · setup)
- Kalshi vs Polymarket, in one question: ask where the two venues disagree, then whether they agree on the next Fed meeting. (50s demo · setup guide)
- Kalshi 15-minute gold & Bitcoin + the BTC perp: live boards and perp funding in one chat. (48s demo · commodity markets)
- Claude, ChatGPT & Cursor: paste one URL and ask. (40s demo · Cursor setup)
- Kalshi weather edges + Kelly sizing: forecast vs market, then the position size, in one chat. (46s demo · weather)
Connect
One click: Add to Cursor · Add to VS Code · Gemini CLI: gemini extensions install https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp
Any host that speaks Streamable HTTP (Claude Code, Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Cursor) — point it at the URL. Nothing to install:
claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=npm
Hosts that only speak stdio — this package bridges one to the other:
{
"mcpServers": {
"predictionmarketspicks": {
"command": "npx",
"args": ["-y", "@predictionmarketspicks/mcp"]
}
}
}
That relays the hosted server verbatim — all 38 tools, live data, tool schemas and result payloads untouched. Set PMP_API_KEY in the server's env to unlock the Pro tools; without one you get the free tools at free depth.
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp # bridge to the hosted quant server (default)
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --draft # bridge to the fantasy-draft server (half parked until 2027)
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --local # 6 calculators, offline, no network at all
--local is a self-contained build of the six stateless calculators. It makes no network calls, so it runs in an air-gapped sandbox — but it cannot serve the live engines, the NFL model, or anything that reads a market.
Other hosted surfaces (same registry, same tool objects, different selection — no separate install):
| Server | Endpoint | Exposes |
|---|
com.predictionmarketspicks/quant | https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=npm | All 38 tools |
com.predictionmarketspicks/fantasy-draft | https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-draft/mcp | The 8 draft tools — four answer in season, four parked until the 2027 offseason |
com.predictionmarketspicks/weather | https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp | The 7-tool weather loop: weather_board (every open Kalshi daily-high strike) + edge_alerts (weather feed) + the five calculators |
com.predictionmarketspicks/commodities | https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp | The 10-tool macro & commodities desk: fifteen_min_board, perps_board, perp_liquidation, commodity_edge (gold / silver / oil / bitcoin), fed_rate_odds, market_pulse, base_rate_gap + three calculators |
com.predictionmarketspicks/elections | https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-elections/mcp | The election odds desk: senate_map, race_odds (every 2026 Senate, governor and House race on Kalshi), fed_rate_odds, market_pulse |
com.predictionmarketspicks/crypto | https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-crypto/mcp | The crypto desk: fifteen_min_board, perps_board, perp_liquidation, commodity_edge (bitcoin) + three calculators |
Free tools need no key. Pro tools read the live PMP edge engines and require a PredictionMarketsPicks API key ($14.99/mo). Deeper results on the list-shaped tools unlock instantly and free — no key to copy, nothing to install: unlock here.
Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via --local
| Tool | What it does |
|---|
calculate_ev | Expected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read. |
kelly_size | Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating. |
bayes_update | Update a prior with one or more pieces of evidence; returns the posterior and the per-step chain. |
convert_probability | Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. |
base_rate_gap | Compare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample quality. |
combo_edge | Grade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, correlation-aware joint probability, negative-correlation trap flag. |
Markets — free
| Tool | What it does |
|---|
fed_rate_odds | Live Kalshi-implied odds of a Fed rate cut, hold or hike at each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting, plus the next meeting and the current fed funds rate. |
fifteen_min_board | Every Kalshi 15-minute series live — crypto, gold, silver, oil, natural gas, copper, currencies — with the open window's YES price, close time, settlement source, and how the last 96 windows settled. |
perps_board | Every Kalshi perp — price, volume, open interest, max leverage, and what funding has cost a long since launch. |
perp_liquidation | Where a leveraged Kalshi perp position liquidates (an estimate from Kalshi's published risk parameters), with fees and funding over the hold. |
weather_board | Every open Kalshi daily-high temperature strike in 13 cities — YES price, settlement station, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. |
Politics — free
| Tool | What it does |
|---|
senate_map | Every 2026 Senate seat — holder, structure rating, forecaster ratings and the live Kalshi price, closest race first. Unpriced seats return null, never an estimate. |
race_odds | Live Kalshi odds for one 2026 Senate, governor or competitive House race (by state or district, e.g. "TX-34") — every leg's price, volume and link, plus the forecaster ratings. |
Markets — free, depth-capped
| Tool | What it does |
|---|
find_arbitrage | Cross-venue price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same contract. Largest gap free; whole board on Pro. |
market_pulse | US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus six category scores. Composite always free. |
NFL in-season — free
| Tool | What it does |
|---|
nfl_power_ratings | PWR for all 32 NFL teams — points per game above an average team on a neutral field, with rank and tier. |
nfl_win_probability | Turn an NFL spread + total into win probability, projected score, and over/cover probability — or pass two teams to derive the spread. |
nfl_ladder | The Ladder — every Kalshi strike vs our whole distribution (spreads, season wins, props) with the derived verdict: SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. |
nfl_prop_board | This week's NFL prop prices venue by venue — every Kalshi strike vs the book consensus, DraftKings/FanDuel lines, Novig/ProphetX, and where the best price for each side actually is. |
ladder_arb | Ladder Arb Scanner — Kalshi college football + NFL spread/total ladders priced out of order on the same side of the same game: locked arbitrage (buy the low strike, sell the high one) and crossed-mid inversions with the resting orders that capture them. |
NHL — free
| Tool | What it does |
|---|
nhl_edge | Goal Light — every NHL game and player contract priced against Kalshi, with the book consensus beside it and a 10,000-season simulation for the futures board. |
track_record | Our graded record per engine (bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, weather, NHL) plus the daily editorial call: W-L, net P/L, a 95% win-rate range and the current model era. WATCH calls are reported apart. |
my_league | Your Sleeper league by username — each starter beside every Kalshi prop strike on him this week, with the best price per side, opponent, kickoff and OUT/QB-gate flags. Market data only. |
start_sit | Two to four players side by side — the median Kalshi is pricing for each stat, read off his own strike ladder, plus his anytime-TD price. Market prices only; the call stays yours. |
waiver_targets | Sleeper's most-added players in the last 24 hours with what Kalshi is pricing each at — filtered to players still available in your league when you give a username. |
Fantasy draft desk — half in season, half parked until 2027
Answering in season (free): player_outlook · explain_player · compare_players · sleepers_and_busts — the same names, now about this week: one player's Kalshi prop strikes, why the model prices them there, two to four players side by side, and the players the market over- and underprices.
Parked until the 2027 offseason: draft_board · best_available · who_do_i_draft · adp_market_gaps — still registered (and free), but they answer with a redirect to the in-season NFL tools above rather than a draft answer. They reopen with the 2027 board.
Pro — live edge engines
commodity_edge · scan_mispricings · nfl_edge · nfl_prop_edge · edge_alerts
Trade tickets from the silver, gold, oil and bitcoin engines; Polymarket contracts trading away from the PMP model; NFL game and prop edges; the alerts feed. edge_alerts is the one hybrid: Pro keys get the feed in real time, and without a key the same feed arrives delayed 24h.
All tool descriptions and outputs use prediction-market terminology (trader / position / contract / market analysis).
Source
This repo is the public home of the server: the manifest, the bridge, the offline calculator build, and the docs. The hosted service and its live data are operated by PredictionMarketsPicks — MIT license covers this repository, and no install is required to use the server.
npm install
npm run smoke # offline calculator self-test, no network
npm run smoke:bridge # bridge self-test against the hosted endpoint
npm start -- --local # stdio server, 6 calculators
Or run the offline build with Docker:
docker build -t pmp-mcp-quant .
docker run --rm -i pmp-mcp-quant
About
Built by PredictionMarketsPicks — independent quant tools and edge analysis for Kalshi and Polymarket, published by The 7 Oracles. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
License
MIT — see LICENSE.