com.predictionmarketspicks/quant — MCP Server

Prediction-market quant tools for AI agents: EV, Kelly, arbitrage, edge for Kalshi & Polymarket. This MCP server provides quantitative methods to evaluate and optimize decision strategies in prediction markets with a focus on expected value, Kelly criterion, and arbitrage opportunities.

🛠️ Key Features

EV and Kelly-based decision metrics
Arbitrage and edge detection for prediction markets
Tools optimized for Kalshi and Polymarket
Suite of 10 tools for quantitative portfolio guidance

🚀 Use Cases

AI agents optimizing bet sizing and risk in prediction markets
Strategy evaluation for market makers and traders
Quick assessment of arbitrage opportunities across platforms

⚡ Developer Benefits

Clear, tool-based API for market metrics
Reusable components for AI-driven benchmarking
Grounded in established quantitative finance concepts

⚠️ Limitations

Focused on prediction-market contexts (Kalshi, Polymarket)
May require additional integration for non-native platforms
ToolCount indicates available tools; specifics live in the readmeExcerpt

PredictionMarketsPicks MCP

A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform price gaps, live edge signals, and a 2026 NFL fantasy draft assistant.

Every signal our engines publish is graded against the market that priced it: 1,612 decided signals, +$98.40 net on a flat one-contract stake, as of Aug 18, 2026 — published per tool, including the engines that lose money. → predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record

Endpoint (Streamable HTTP): https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp
Registry name: com.predictionmarketspicks/quant (MCP registry)
Docs / landing page: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp
23 tools — 16 free, 5 Pro, 2 free-with-depth-caps. No key needed for the free set.

Connect

Any host that speaks Streamable HTTP (Claude Code, Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Cursor) — point it at the URL. Nothing to install:

code

claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp

Hosts that only speak stdio — this package bridges one to the other:

jsonc

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "predictionmarketspicks": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["-y", "@predictionmarketspicks/mcp"]
    }
  }
}

That relays the hosted server verbatim — all 23 tools, live data, tool schemas and result payloads untouched. Set PMP_API_KEY in the server's env to unlock the Pro tools; without one you get the free tools at free depth.

code

npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp            # bridge to the hosted quant server (default)
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --draft    # bridge to the fantasy-draft server instead
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --local    # 6 calculators, offline, no network at all

--local is a self-contained build of the six stateless calculators. It makes no network calls, so it runs in an air-gapped sandbox — but it cannot serve the live engines, the draft desk, or anything that reads a market.

Tools

Free tools need no key. Pro tools read the live PMP edge engines and require a PredictionMarketsPicks API key ($14.99/mo). A free key raises the depth caps on the list-shaped tools.

Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via `--local`

Tool	What it does
`calculate_ev`	Expected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
`kelly_size`	Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating.
`bayes_update`	Update a prior with one or more pieces of evidence; returns the posterior and the per-step chain.
`convert_probability`	Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds.
`base_rate_gap`	Compare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample quality.
`combo_edge`	Grade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, correlation-aware joint probability, negative-correlation trap flag.

Markets — free, depth-capped

Tool	What it does
`find_arbitrage`	Cross-venue price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same contract. Largest gap free; whole board on Pro.
`market_pulse`	US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus six category scores. Composite always free.

NFL + fantasy draft — free

draft_board · best_available · who_do_i_draft · compare_players · player_outlook · explain_player · sleepers_and_busts · adp_market_gaps · nfl_power_ratings · nfl_win_probability

The 2026 half-PPR board with model calls, tier breaks, ADP-vs-model gaps, per-player reasoning, and eight platform ADP presets. Single-player lookups are never capped.

Pro — live edge engines

commodity_edge · scan_mispricings · nfl_edge · nfl_prop_edge · edge_alerts

Trade tickets from the silver, gold, oil and bitcoin engines; Polymarket contracts trading away from the PMP model; NFL game and prop edges; the alerts feed.

All tool descriptions and outputs use prediction-market terminology (trader / position / contract / market analysis).

Source

This repo is the public home of the server: the manifest, the bridge, the offline calculator build, and the docs. The hosted service and its live data are operated by PredictionMarketsPicks — MIT license covers this repository, and no install is required to use the server.

code

npm install
npm run smoke          # offline calculator self-test, no network
npm run smoke:bridge   # bridge self-test against the hosted endpoint
npm start -- --local   # stdio server, 6 calculators

Or run the offline build with Docker:

code

docker build -t pmp-mcp-quant .
docker run --rm -i pmp-mcp-quant

About

Built by PredictionMarketsPicks — independent quant tools and edge analysis for Kalshi and Polymarket, published by The 7 Oracles. Educational analysis, not financial advice.

License

MIT — see LICENSE.

winProbability	any	required	Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
marketPrice	any	required	Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
bankroll	any	optional	Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("1000", "$1,000").
fraction	string	optional	Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default.

marketPrice	any	required	Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
baseRateId	string	optional	Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source).
baseRateValue	number	optional	Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.

legPrices	array	required	Each leg's YES price in cents (1–99). Used only for the theoretical assemble ceiling.
trueWinProbability	number	required	Your correlation-aware estimate of the true joint probability all legs hit, in % (0–100).
offeredOdds	number	optional	The combo price your platform actually quotes — American odds (e.g. -150, 988) or a decimal payout multiplier (e.g. 10.7). Grades EV + verdict against fair value. Omit to get fair value + band only.

team	string	optional	Optional team abbreviation (e.g. "KC", "SF", "LAR") — returns just that team's rating + rank.
tier	string	optional	Optional: only teams in this tier (e.g. "Contender", "Playoff", "Average", "Rebuild").
limit	integer	optional	Max teams to return, best rating first (default 32 = full board).

spread	number	optional	Point spread from the home team's perspective — home favored is NEGATIVE (e.g. -6.5). Provide this OR homeTeam+awayTeam.
total	number	optional	Game total (over/under points). Defaults to the league baseline (44) if omitted.
homeTeam	string	optional	Home team — abbrev (KC), nickname (Chiefs), full name (Kansas City Chiefs) or city (Kansas City) all work. Auto-derives the spread from PMP power ratings.
awayTeam	string	optional	Away team — same formats as homeTeam (SF, 49ers, San Francisco 49ers). Used with homeTeam.

marketPrice	any	required	Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
yourProbability	any	required	Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

prior	any	required	Prior probability the hypothesis is true, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
evidence	array	required	One or more evidence items, applied in order.

value	any	required	The numeric value to convert. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("+150", "62%", "2.5").
format	string	required	Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5).

commodity	string	required	Which commodity edge to read: silver or bitcoin.
tickers	array	optional	Optional Kalshi ticker watchlist (up to 25) — e.g. paste the tickers from your Kalshi Pro screener or Canvas to get PMP's edge on exactly those markets. Full market or 3-segment event tickers both work. Tickers PMP doesn't model are returned as not_covered (never a fabricated edge).

minEdge	any	optional	Minimum absolute edge in pp to include (default 5). Accepts a number or a numeric string ("3", "3pp", "3%").
limit	integer	optional	Max rows to return (default 10).

feed	string	optional	Comma-separated feeds to include: weather, bitcoin, silver, gold, oil, mispricing, sports_arb, nfl. Omit for all.
min_tier	string	optional	Minimum confidence tier (returns that tier and above).
since	string	optional	ISO-8601 timestamp — only alerts created after it.
limit	integer	optional	Max alerts to return (default 25).

market	string	optional	game = this week moneyline edges; futures = season win totals; mvp = KXNFLMVP; championship = playoff/conference/Super Bowl.
minEdge	any	optional	Minimum absolute edge in pp to include (default 4). Ignored when tickers[] is passed. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("3", "3pp", "3%").
limit	integer	optional	Max rows (default 10).
tickers	array	optional	Optional Kalshi ticker watchlist (up to 25) — e.g. paste the tickers from your Kalshi Pro screener or Canvas to get PMP's edge on exactly those markets. Full market or 3-segment event tickers both work. Tickers PMP doesn't model are returned as not_covered (never a fabricated edge).

propType	string	optional	Optional filter by prop type.
minEdge	any	optional	Min absolute edge in pp (default 5). Accepts a number or a numeric string ("3", "3pp", "3%").
limit	integer	optional	Max rows (default 10).

position	string	optional	Optional position filter (FLEX = RB/WR/TE).
limit	integer	optional	Max players to return, best first (default 50).
scoring	string	optional	Scoring format: standard, half_ppr (default), or ppr (full PPR). Overrides a platform preset. Works for Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper defaults.
platform	string	optional	League platform — applies its default scoring, size, roster + best-ball settings (overridable by explicit scoring/teams). Underdog/DraftKings are best ball.
teams	integer	optional	League size (number of teams) for draft-round math. Overrides the platform default; falls back to 12.

pick_number	integer	required	The overall pick number that is on the clock.
drafted	array	optional	Player names already drafted (any team). Removed from the pool.
roster	array	optional	Player names on the USER's team — enables a bye-stack warning on the top pick (byes are shown per-player regardless).
scoring	string	optional	Scoring format: standard, half_ppr (default), or ppr (full PPR). Overrides a platform preset. Works for Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper defaults.
platform	string	optional	League platform — applies its default scoring, size, roster + best-ball settings (overridable by explicit scoring/teams). Underdog/DraftKings are best ball.
teams	integer	optional	League size (number of teams) for draft-round math. Overrides the platform default; falls back to 12.

player	string	required	Player full name (e.g. "Bijan Robinson", "Jaxon Smith-Njigba").
scoring	string	optional	Scoring format: standard, half_ppr (default), or ppr (full PPR). Overrides a platform preset. Works for Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper defaults.
platform	string	optional	League platform — applies its default scoring, size, roster + best-ball settings (overridable by explicit scoring/teams). Underdog/DraftKings are best ball.

players	array	required	2–4 player full names to compare.
scoring	string	optional	Scoring format: standard, half_ppr (default), or ppr (full PPR). Overrides a platform preset. Works for Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper defaults.
platform	string	optional	League platform — applies its default scoring, size, roster + best-ball settings (overridable by explicit scoring/teams). Underdog/DraftKings are best ball.

com.predictionmarketspicks/quant — MCP Server

🛠️ Key Features

🚀 Use Cases

⚡ Developer Benefits

⚠️ Limitations

Topics

calculate_ev

kelly_size

bayes_update

convert_probability

base_rate_gap

combo_edge

nfl_power_ratings

nfl_win_probability

find_arbitrage

market_pulse

commodity_edge

scan_mispricings

edge_alerts

nfl_edge

nfl_prop_edge

draft_board

best_available

player_outlook

explain_player

compare_players

sleepers_and_busts

who_do_i_draft

adp_market_gaps

PredictionMarketsPicks MCP

Connect

Tools

Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via --local

Markets — free, depth-capped

NFL + fantasy draft — free

Pro — live edge engines

Source

About

License

Install

Remote endpoint

Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via `--local`