Glass-box statistical analysis for agents: 19 methods, cited findings, zero invented numbers.
io.github.FantasyLab-ai/aurora MCP Server
The io.github.FantasyLab-ai/aurora MCP server provides glass-box statistical analysis for agents, emphasizing “19 methods” and “cited findings.” Its description states it avoids invented numbers, indicating results are grounded in referenced sources.
🛠️ Key Features
Glass-box statistical analysis for agents
19 analysis methods
Cited findings
Zero invented numbers
🚀 Use Cases
Agent workflows that require statistical analysis
Scenarios where cited, verifiable findings are required
Tasks needing methodical analysis using a fixed set of techniques
⚡ Developer Benefits
Clear grounding via cited findings
Method coverage is specified as 19 methods
Reduced risk of unsupported or fabricated numeric claims
⚠️ Limitations
Available capabilities are limited to the described 19 methods (no other methods are mentioned)
The easiest way to run Aurora — no Python, no terminal, no setup. Download
the installer for your OS, double-click, and Aurora opens as a native app with
the analysis backend bundled inside it.
Pick the file that matches your OS (filenames carry the version, e.g. 0.2.0):
OS
File to download
Install
Windows 10/11
Aurora_x.x.x_x64-setup.exe(recommended)
Run the setup wizard.
Windows 10/11
Aurora_x.x.x_x64_en-US.msi
Alternative MSI installer (same app).
macOS (Apple Silicon · M1/M2/M3/M4)
Aurora_x.x.x_aarch64.dmg
Open the .dmg, drag Aurora to Applications.
Linux (Debian / Ubuntu / Mint)
Aurora_x.x.x_amd64.deb
sudo apt install ./Aurora_x.x.x_amd64.deb
Linux (Fedora / RHEL / openSUSE)
Aurora-x.x.x-1.x86_64.rpm
sudo dnf install ./Aurora-x.x.x-1.x86_64.rpm
Aurora_aarch64.app.tar.gz is an auto-updater artifact, not a download —
use the .dmg on macOS. There is currently no Intel-Mac (x86_64) or Linux
AppImage build; Intel-Mac users can run from source.
On first launch Aurora bootstraps a small knowledge-bank seed, then runs fully
offline — no API keys, no cloud, no telemetry. Drop a CSV on the window and
watch it analyze. Aurora is local-first: your data never leaves your machine
unless you explicitly share a single finding — see PRIVACY.md.
Heads up on the "Unknown Publisher" warning. Current releases are not yet
code-signed, so Windows SmartScreen may show "Windows protected your PC" and
macOS Gatekeeper may say "unidentified developer." This is expected for a
young open-source project. On Windows: More info → Run anyway. On macOS:
right-click the app → Open. Code-signing is on the roadmap.
Desktop app — tips & known quirks
A few things that are expected behavior, not bugs:
First launch shows a welcome screen, not a run. That's intentional — a
fresh start is clean. Drop a CSV (or click a demo card) to begin; your past
runs are always available under Data → Bundles.
Give the backend a few seconds on first launch. Aurora starts a local
analysis server (127.0.0.1:8001) the first time you open it; the status dot
reads "connecting…" for ~5–10 s before it goes live. If it lingers, the app
is still warming up — it is not frozen.
Big datasets take longer, and results land all at once. A large file can
spend a while in "analyzing…". When it finishes you'll see "analysis
complete" and the views populate. If the Overview looks momentarily empty
right after completion, give it a few seconds or click another tab and back —
the assembled state is still being fetched, and it will fill in.
Re-running the same file is instant. Identical data + settings reuse a
cached analysis; the banner reads "instant · cached." That's a speed win,
not a skipped run.
Knowledge Bank starts small on a fresh install. The bundled app ships with
a seed bank that grows over time; the large multi-thousand-entry bank you may
see in screenshots is built up on a machine that's been ingesting data for a
while. Citations still work against whatever is local.
Want to build it yourself or run from source? Keep reading.
⚡ Quickstart (60 seconds)
bash
# 1. Clone + create a virtualenv
git clone https://github.com/FantasyLab-ai/aurora.git
cd aurora
python -m venv .venv
# Windows:
.\.venv\Scripts\Activate.ps1
# macOS / Linux:source .venv/bin/activate
# 2. Install
pip install -r requirements.txt
# 3. Run the Studio
python studio_api.py
Open http://127.0.0.1:8000. Click ▶ Try a demo for an instant smoke test, or drop your own CSV / Parquet / JSON / XLSX.
First run will download a small knowledge-bank seed (~50 MB). After that, Aurora runs fully offline — no API keys, no cloud, no telemetry.
Optional extras (only if you need them):
bash
pip install cryptography # Ed25519 bundle signing
pip install mcp # MCP server for LLM agents (Claude Desktop, Cursor, etc.)
pip install -r requirements-dev.txt # contributor / test extras
A native, installable app — frameless window, sidebar navigation,
drag-and-drop any file onto it. Built with Tauri 2, with Aurora's full
analysis backend bundled inside the installer, so it runs with zero
setup: no Python, no venv, no terminal.
Most people should just download it.
The rest of this section is for developers who want to build it from
source or hack on the UI.
What it does
Surface
Behavior
Frameless window
Rounded card on transparent OS background; aurora ◆ titlebar with min/max/close
Sidebar (left)
Workspace · Data · Full Studio sections + live "aurora: online / offline" status dot
Tab strip (top)
Overview / Findings / Data with one shared sliding underline
Drag & drop ANY file
CSV, TSV, JSON, JSONL, Parquet, XLSX — drop anywhere on the window, or click to browse
Overview
Stat cards (Findings · Methods · Anomalies · Regimes) + Aurora's narrative in plain English
Findings
Severity-filtered card grid; click a card for the full evidence panel
Methods
Per-run method tally with share-bars
Datasets
Bundled fixtures + demo datasets — click any card to run it
Bundles
Past runs — every signed .aurora.json on disk, status-coded
Aurora Studio sidebar
Full legacy UI in an iframe — every feature still reachable
Build it from source / develop
The desktop app lives in desktop/. To build the installer
yourself (PyInstaller backend + Tauri shell) or run the UI in hot-reload
dev mode, see desktop/README.md — it covers the
prerequisites (Node, Rust), the one-command launcher (launch.ps1), the
installer build (build_installer.ps1), and the Windows Smart App Control
caveat. A git tag vX.Y.Z push triggers the cross-platform release CI.
🚨 Aurora Sentinel — Decision Contracts in the room
Aurora ships a complete demo rig under demos/ that turns a Decision Contract trip into something tangible — a Discord ping, a Slack alert, an OBS overlay card, a smart-plug flipping in your room. Five "I gave my local AI X and watch what it caught" videos, all built on the same scaffolding.
#
Demo
Hero shot
What it shows
1
Aurora Alarm
A physical light flips when the data breaks
The closed loop is real — software → cited reason → real-world consequence
2
Community Sentinel
A Discord embed lands with method + row +
z
3
The Save
A Slack ping arrives at the regime shift
The "human watching dashboards would have slept through this" demo
4
Verification Cortex
An agent calls Aurora's MCP and acts on a verified number
Sells the agent-builder use case; no more confidently-wrong z-scores
5
Rediscover the Law
Aurora derives y = ½·a·t² from a falling-ball video
The flagship hook — a free local AI rediscovers gravity, cited to SINDy
Quickstart for the demos (after the install above):
bash
# Generate the synthetic datasets one time:
python -m demos.datasets.falling_ball.generate
python -m demos.datasets.server_metrics.generate
# Install the demo contracts into Aurora's contracts dir:cp demos/contracts/*.json ~/.aurora/decision_contracts/ # macOS / Linux
copy demos\contracts\*.json $env:USERPROFILE\.aurora\decision_contracts\ # Windows# Configure your webhooks once (copy the template + paste your URLs):cp demos/.env.demos.example demos/.env.demos # macOS / Linux
copy demos\.env.demos.example demos\.env.demos # Windows# Run the relay (it reads .env.demos for Discord/Slack URLs):
python -m demos.relay.app
Full step-by-step recording walkthrough with OBS setup, contract installation, and a per-demo runbook lives at demos/README.md.
See Aurora in action
A real run on an environmental air-quality dataset — captured straight from a Studio session.
Aurora run summary banner — domain selector, run status, fabricated chip, and confidence
The run banner. Domain selector across the top (Research / Ops / Industrial / Finance / Medical / Economics / Sports / Logistics / Custom+) sets context. The Aurora Pulse line below states the run's status in plain English. The 0 fabricated chip is the contractual signal that every finding traces to a method.
Aurora Studio — Overview cube and Intelligence tiles after a real analytical run
The Studio. The Overview cube rotates through six analytical lenses (Overview, Anomalies, Regimes, Motifs, Forecast, Physics). Below it, the Intelligence row surfaces the top anomalies (20 critical), the forecast peak prediction, a what-if causal answer, and the discovered physics law — y = a·t² + b·t + c at RMSE 126.720 — all live and grounded in artifacts, not LLM guesses.
The moat: every sentence cites a source
What This Means — cited synthesis with Grounded in 12 knowledge entries panel below
"What This Means" reads like a research paragraph because it is one. Each claim is tagged with a seed:* citation — seed:diurnal_cycle, seed:mutual_information_kg, seed:causal_chain, seed:physics_match, seed:wavelet_morlet, seed:sindy — that links to the exact knowledge-bank entry backing it. The panel below lists all 12 entries Aurora actually retrieved, each with its real source: Newton (1701), French AP (1971), Pierson & Moskowitz (1964), NIST, NOAA NDBC, Torrence & Compo (1998). No invented citations. No invented numbers. No invented papers.
Findings cards with method chip, severity, threshold and seed citation Findings as structured atoms. Each card is a typed object — method, severity (crit / high / med), threshold, evidence, citation — not a paragraph of LLM prose. +448.6σ with p < 0E+0 isn't a vibes-level "anomaly"; it's a Hampel z-score on row 6715 you can re-run.
Advanced methods panel showing 19 research-grade methods with honest skip reasons 19 advanced methods, honestly disclosed. HMM (3 latent regimes), mutual info (13-feature matrix), Granger (5 causal pairs), Wavelet Morlet CWT, Gaussian process, persistent topology, multivariate outliers (325 of 5000 flagged by ≥2 detectors). Methods that couldn't run are explicitly skipped with the reason — no_time_axis, negative_values_present, cross_sectional_no_time_axis. No silent failure.
Spacetime view — entity worldlines with a threshold cross marker in the forecast cone Spacetime worldlines. Eight entity worldlines (Wind, Atmospheric pressure, Solar input, Humidity, Air temperature, Sea-surface temp, Wave height, Precipitation) plotted against time. The vertical "NOW" line separates past from the forecast cone. The orange marker is a predicted threshold cross at +2.0h — fired by Aurora, not a human.
Phase space view — the system's state trajectory through its attractor basin Phase Space. The system reduced to a 2D state projection. The cyan NOW marker is current position; the trail behind it is the trajectory it took to get there. Pressure ↔ solar, pressure ↔ humidity, pressure ↔ air_temp resonances (35.71m, coh 1.0) drive the geometry.
Captured on a 9,357-row cross-sectional air-quality dataset at AUTO tier. Run took ≈14 seconds local on consumer hardware. 0 fabricated. 12 cited knowledge entries. Three methods deferred with reason.
Verifying the install
After python studio_api.py starts, you should see something like:
code
[aurora] frontend = /path/to/aurora/frontend
* Running on http://127.0.0.1:8000
Open the URL. The Studio greets you with a "drop a dataset" zone. Use any of:
bash
data/fixtures/factory_bearing_demo.csv # ships with the repo — bearing failure
data/fixtures/climate_buoy_demo.csv # ships with the repo — NOAA-style buoy data
data/fixtures/patient_cohort_demo.csv # ships with the repo — clinical cohort
Drop one, click AUTO + ▶ RUN ANALYSIS. In ~10-20 seconds you'll see:
The six analytical lenses populate (Overview, Anomalies, Regimes, Motifs, Forecast, Physics)
The Findings cards list every cited claim
The 0 fabricated chip (always — that's Aurora's contract)
If that worked, you're production-ready.
Optional: enhanced frontend build (v0.10 Phase 2)
You do NOT need this to run Aurora.python studio_api.py is the only command required. This section is for developers who want type safety + a Vite hot-reload dev loop for future panel work.
The Phase 2 bundle adds a Vite + TypeScript layer with typed API helpers, hardened Server-Sent Events, and a Nanostores-backed state model. It runs side-by-side with the existing frontend and is fully non-breaking — the visible Studio looks identical with or without it.
Requirements: Node 18+ and npm.
Activation is a one-time build:
bash
cd frontend
npm install # installs Vite, TypeScript, @types/node, Nanostores
npm run build # produces frontend/dist/aurora.js + aurora.csscd ..
That's it. The next time anyone loads the Studio (whether Flask was already running or not), the bundle activates automatically — Flask's static route serves the new files, and index.html HEAD-probes for them on load. Open DevTools console after a page reload and you'll see ⚡ Aurora 0.10.0+phase2 loaded plus window.Aurora.api / .store / .stream available for custom panel work.
To turn it back off: rm -rf frontend/dist/ (or delete the folder). The page reverts to pure-legacy mode with no console warnings.
For active TypeScript development with hot-reload (two terminals):
bash
# Terminal 1 — Flask backend on :8000
python studio_api.py
# Terminal 2 — Vite dev server on :5173 with HMR + Flask proxycd frontend && npm run dev
Status: v1.1 shipped (May 2026). v1.2 substantially shipped (streaming, cloud, Jupyter, contracts actions, runs library, MCP HTTP). v2.0 actively shipping on main (causal do-calculus, multi-dataset joins, Plugin SDK, custom KB ingestion, bundle attestation, KB marketplace, Kafka + Postgres CDC connectors, GPU embeddings). 599 tests passing locally; ~625 in CI. Real users running it on real data.
Run it in Docker (BYO-LLM)
bash
cp .env.example .env# pick a provider + paste your key
docker compose up # → Aurora Studio at http://localhost:8000
One command, persistent state on the host (./aurora-data/), no cloud
dependency. See docs/cloud-deploy.md for Fly /
Railway / Render / VPS recipes + the new multi-tenant auth model.
One engine. Two surfaces. Same glass-box.
Aurora has two faces sharing one analytical engine. Same code, same principles, two integration shapes — one for humans clicking through findings, one for AI systems calling APIs.
🧠 Aurora Copilot — for humans
For analysts, quants, scientists, engineers.
A local quantitative copilot for the work that matters too much to trust to a model that hallucinates. Drop in a dataset and get rigorous findings — anomalies surfaced, causal relationships tested, forecasts with confidence bounds, every claim cited to the underlying computation. No cloud LLM guessing. No black-box math.
Glass-box studio — six analytical lenses (Overview, Anomalies, Regimes, Motifs, Forecast, Physics), spacetime system graph, phase-space projection
24+ research-grade methods — Isolation Forest, robust z-score (Hampel), Granger, HMM Baum-Welch, persistent homology, SINDy, Gaussian processes, mutual information, VAR, DTW, BOCPD, Robust PCA, EMD, Kalman, Spectral entropy, and more
Knowledge-grounded synthesis — every "What This Means" sentence cites a seed:* entry in a public, licensed knowledge bank
Preflight data-quality — schema validation, missingness pattern detection, irregular-sampling check before any analysis runs (the data ok / N issues chip next to the fabricated counter)
Causal inference (do-calculus) — Pearl-style backdoor identification + adjustment-OLS estimation. The legacy WHAT-IF panel now ships a "do() causal verdict" beneath every simulator output; the v2.0 LAB has a dedicated full-screen Causal tab for explicit treatment/outcome/intervention queries + counterfactuals
Streaming / continuous mode — point Aurora at a directory; findings refresh as new data lands. Per-finding dedupe so the bus only fires on genuinely new findings; opt-in Decision Contracts auto-fire bridge. Kafka + Postgres CDC connectors for non-file sources (deps gated, listed in the v2.0 LAB → Connectors tab)
Composable findings — a finished run's fitted physics / regime / baseline becomes a prior for the next run; aligned findings get a PRIOR badge
Multi-dataset joins — pair two finished runs to see shared keys, schema compatibility, and inheritance candidates
Runs Library — pin runs across sessions, A/B compare any two runs, share runs as portable .aurora.json bundles
Custom KB ingestion — drop a folder of PDFs / TXT / MD; Aurora walks it, extracts text, folds chunks into your workspace KB. Browse-folder UI in the v2.0 LAB
For AI builders, agent developers, AI product teams.
The verification layer your AI agents and AI products call when they can't afford to hallucinate quantitative claims. Every LLM today invents numbers; Aurora is the structurally different fix — it computes and verifies rather than predicts. Connect via MCP, the Python SDK, or Decision Contracts.
Four programmable surfaces, all consuming the same .aurora.json bundle format:
python
import aurora_sdk as aurora
r = aurora.run("data.csv", depth="standard")
r.findings.critical().by_method("iso-forest")
r.forecast.peak(horizon_hours=24)
r.bundle.save("audit.aurora.json") # SHA-256 integrity + optional Ed25519 signing# Verify on any machine with Aurora installed
b = aurora.Bundle.load("audit.aurora.json")
b.verify() # raises if tampered
Every AI today — including the best cloud LLMs — hallucinates on quantitative claims. Bigger models don't fix it. RAG alone doesn't fix it. Chain-of-thought just produces longer confident lies.
Aurora is the rarest kind of fix — structurally different. It computes and verifies rather than predicts. It runs locally on your machine. It shows its math. Every relationship Aurora reports is computed, not guessed. Every claim cites its source. Every uncertain finding is rendered as uncertain — never confident-looking math over shaky ground.
Core principles
🔍 Glass-box at every layer. Every node, edge, finding, and recommendation traces to its source. Bundles carry a SHA-256 content hash and can be Ed25519-signed.
💻 Local-first, always. Your data stays on your machine. No telemetry. No phone-home. The MCP server enforces a per-call path allowlist; Decision Contracts block private-IP webhook targets by default.
🎯 Honesty rule. Uncertain relationships render as uncertain. When methods sample or time out, the user is told. Aurora's fabricated_count chip is a contractual 0 — and it's audited live.
📖 Open source. Apache 2.0. Inspectable. Forkable. Yours to audit, vendor, embed, redistribute.
How it connects
Aurora is built to be infrastructure both humans and AI systems can call:
MCP Server — connect any MCP-compatible AI client (Claude Desktop, Claude Code, Cursor, custom agents). 7 tools advertised; path-allowlisted; 2 MB output cap; JSON-only error wrapping
No install step — uvx fetches aurora-mcp from PyPI on first run. (Running from a source checkout instead? Use "command": "/path/to/aurora/.venv/bin/python", "args": ["-m", "aurora_mcp.server", "--allow-root", "/Users/you/data"].)
Then ask Claude:
Run Aurora on /Users/you/data/factory_bearing.csv at standard depth, then drill into the most critical anomaly with full evidence.
Claude chains aurora_analyze → aurora_findings(severity=crit) → aurora_explain(claim_id=…) and writes you back a response citing every method — never inventing a row number or a z-score.
from aurora_sdk import Bundle
from fantasyai.aurora.decision_contracts import load_contracts, fire_contract
bundle = Bundle.load("latest.aurora.json").doc
for c in load_contracts():
fire_contract(c, bundle) # webhook fires, audit row appended
What's working today
The v1.1 substrate — Bundle Format, SDK, MCP, Decision Contracts, Research Kit, six analytical lenses — is shipped and stable. The v1.2 sprint is substantially complete; v2.0 work is landing continuously on main.
v1.2 added: VAR, DTW, BOCPD, Robust PCA, EMD, Kalman, Spectral entropy — each with skip reasons + glass-box compliance
v1.2 surfaces (mostly shipped):
Streaming / continuous mode — /api/stream/start|stop|status|events with SSE event bus, per-finding dedupe, opt-in Decision Contracts bridge, Live Findings strip in the Studio
v2.0 surfaces (shipping, exposed in the ⚡ v2.0 LAB modal):
Causal inference (do-calculus) — fantasyai/aurora/causal/. Backdoor identification + adjustment-OLS estimation + counterfactual queries. The legacy WHAT-IF panel now also returns a "do() causal verdict" beneath every simulator output
Multi-dataset joins — /api/joins/analyze produces shared keys + schema compatibility + cross-correlation hints + inheritance candidates between two finished runs
Composable findings — extract priors from a finished run, inherit them into the next; aligned findings get a PRIOR · matches / drifts / novel badge
Plugin SDK — third-party methods register via aurora_plugins entry-point group; same contract as built-ins; failures are isolated
Custom KB ingestion — drop a folder of PDFs / TXT / MD; Aurora walks it and folds chunks into the workspace KB. Folder picker + drag-and-drop in the v2.0 LAB
Bundle attestation — three-check rollup (integrity + Ed25519 signature + trusted-signer registry) on any .aurora.json
Streaming connectors — Kafka + Postgres CDC connectors for non-file sources. Deps are gated; the v2.0 LAB → Connectors tab lists install hints
GPU embeddings — AURORA_EMBEDDINGS_DEVICE=cuda|mps|auto env-var device selection with graceful CPU fallback
Counts:
599 tests passing locally; ~625 in CI (scipy + flask-dependent tests run there)
16 backend modules import cleanly
0 fabricated findings — contractual
Local execution end-to-end. No cloud dependency after initial knowledge bank download.
What's rough
Named honestly:
The knowledge bank ships with a seed set; the full pack is downloaded separately and is still expanding
The 4 v2.0 marketplace packs (Climate / Finance / Biomed / Industrial) are reserved in the manifest but not yet hosted — SHAs are PENDING_FIRST_BUILD. The Studio labels them PREVIEW and disables install until the next manifest revision
Some advanced methods skip on datasets that lack required structure (no time axis, no entity column) — these skips are correct glass-box behavior; can be confusing without reading the skip reason
Per-method timeouts (90 s default) defer some methods on very large datasets; disclosed honestly
Mobile / tablet responsiveness still pending
Browser security prevents Aurora from reading absolute folder paths from a <input type="file"> picker; KB ingest seeds the folder name + asks the user to type the absolute path
Built in the open. By a real person. For real work.
Aurora is fully open source under Apache 2.0. The engine, the schema, the baseline templates, the MCP server, the SDK, the webhook layer — all of it. No black box at any layer, including the codebase itself.
The roadmap is public. The build is documented on YouTube. Domain experts who contribute knowledge bank entries or templates will be able to earn from the upcoming marketplace (v2.0). Aurora gets smarter as the community grows.
v2.0+ (6–12 months): Federated knowledge contribution · marketplace with creator revenue share · Aurora kernels · Aurora-as-CI · Web Component embeds · mobile companion
Project Family
Aurora is part of FantasyLab.ai — local-first AI tools for serious work. Sister project:
Fantasy Studio — AI-directed cinematic 3D rendering using real path-traced light simulation. Same philosophy applied to creative work instead of analytical work.
Contributing
We welcome contributions. See CONTRIBUTING.md for setup, code style, testing requirements, and the development workflow.
Knowledge bank contributions — adding cited entries for new domains. See docs/knowledge-bank.md
Aurora MCP integrations — example notebooks, demo agents
Security
Aurora processes data locally. The SDK and MCP server have no telemetry, no phone-home, no analytics. The verification cortex is the moat — and it's audited. See SECURITY.md for the full security model and how to report a vulnerability.
License
Aurora is licensed under Apache License 2.0. Use it commercially, modify it, redistribute it. Just keep the copyright notice and don't claim we endorse your derivative.
For deployment in customer-managed cloud environments with enterprise support, contact enterprise@fantasylab.ai.
Acknowledgments
Aurora stands on the shoulders of decades of statistical and analytical research. Citations are baked into every Aurora output. Foundational methods come from researchers including: