Market Intelligence MCP Server
Recession probability, sector rotation, institutional positioning, macro cascade scenario analysis, real estate calculators, and real-time economic data — for Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor, and any MCP client.
Powered by the BullrunData API.
Quick Start
Claude Desktop
Add to your claude_desktop_config.json:
{
"mcpServers": {
"market-intelligence": {
"command": "npx",
"args": ["-y", "@bullrundata/market-intelligence"],
"env": {
"BULLRUNDATA_API_KEY": "your-api-key"
}
}
}
}
Claude Code
claude mcp add market-intelligence -- npx -y @bullrundata/market-intelligence
Get Your API Key
Sign up free at bullrundata.com — 100 calls/day, no credit card required.
Available Tools (26)
Macro Intelligence
| Tool | Description |
|---|---|
dashboard_summary | One-call macro snapshot — recession probability, regime, Fed stance, 14 key indicators |
recession_probability | 15-component recession model with full breakdown and confirmation slice |
recession_indicators | Curated key metrics block (unemployment, CPI, T10Y2Y, VIX, mortgage, etc.) |
fed_stance | Current Fed monetary policy stance and Fed funds rate |
market_regime | Market cycle phase (early/mid/late_cycle / recession) |
confirmation_status | 4 coincident indicators confirming or denying recession signals |
Markets & Institutional
| Tool | Description |
|---|---|
sectors_rotation | Risk-on/risk-off signal from 11 sector ETFs (cyclical vs defensive) with leaders/laggards |
sectors_flows | Per-sector ETF money flow (MFI + 20d volume z-score) — accumulation/distribution per sector |
institutional_cftc | CFTC Commitments of Traders — aggregate institutional futures positioning |
cftc_contracts_list | List all 360+ CFTC futures contracts (Disaggregated + TFF reports) by name |
cftc_positioning_detail | Per-contract CFTC breakdown — Managed Money / Leveraged Funds / Dealers / etc. with WoW change |
institutional_tic | Treasury International Capital flows — net foreign Treasury demand |
Real Estate Calculators
| Tool | Description |
|---|---|
investment_property_analysis | Rental property analysis: cap rate, DSCR, cash flow, 1% rule |
brrrr_analysis | BRRRR deal scoring (0-100) with 70% rule and full breakdown |
Economic Data
| Tool | Description |
|---|---|
economic_indicator | Time series for any tracked indicator (VIXCLS, UNRATE, CPIAUCSL, T10Y2Y, etc.) |
list_indicators | List all tracked indicators, optionally filtered by category |
interest_rates | Fed Policy + Interest Rates categories |
inflation_data | All Inflation-category indicators |
employment_data | Labor Market category (unemployment, payrolls, claims, JOLTS) |
housing_data | Housing category (mortgage rates, starts, permits, prices) |
yield_curve | 10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M spreads with inversion check |
market_sentiment | Markets + Financial Conditions + Consumer Sentiment |
Cascade Engine (Macro Scenario Analysis)
| Tool | Description |
|---|---|
cascade_list | List all 10 macro catalyst scenarios |
cascade_analysis | Full chain reaction for a catalyst with live data enrichment |
cascade_search | Search catalysts by keyword (e.g., "oil", "dollar", "china") |
cascade_by_category | Filter by category: geopolitical, monetary, credit, commodity, currency, structural |
Available Catalysts: Oil Supply Shock, Dollar Liquidity Squeeze, Fed Emergency Rate Cut, US Recession, China-Taiwan Escalation, Yield Curve Inversion, Credit Market Freeze, EM Currency Crisis, Trade War Escalation, Sovereign Debt Crisis
Example Conversations
"What's the current recession risk?"
Claude uses recession_probability and returns:
Current recession probability is 37.9% (moderate risk). Fed stance: neutral. Market regime: mid-cycle. 0 of 4 coincident indicators confirming. Recommendation: Mixed signals require caution. Begin defensive rotation.
"Is this a good time to buy an investment property at $450K?"
Claude uses investment_property_analysis + interest_rates:
At $450K with 20% down at 7%, monthly cash flow is $287. Cap rate: 5.3%. Cash-on-cash: 4.2%. DSCR: 1.18 (healthy). Current 30Y mortgage rate: 6.38%.
"What's the market risk-on/risk-off signal?"
Claude uses sectors_rotation + institutional_cftc:
Sector rotation signal: RISK_ON. Cyclical sectors leading (XLK +19.7%, XLY +7.2%) vs defensive lagging (XLU -0.5%, XLV -2.6%). Rotation spread +4.4. CFTC institutional positioning: e-mini S&P long, gold short — risk-seeking. Playbook: stay overweight cyclicals, watch for rotation breakdown.
"What happens if oil hits $120?"
Claude uses cascade_analysis + sectors_rotation:
Oil Supply Shock cascade: Dollar demand surges (mechanical) -> Asian FX reserves drain (likely, weeks) -> Asian equity outflows (likely) -> Forced rate hikes in Asia (probable, months). Current sector rotation: RISK_ON, but energy (XLE) lagging at -3.6% suggests market hasn't priced supply risk yet. Playbook: inflation hedges (XLE, TIP) and cash reserves. Watch Fed swap line usage for systemic signal.
Configuration
| Environment Variable | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|
BULLRUNDATA_API_KEY | Yes | Your API key from bullrundata.com |
Pricing
| Tier | Calls/Day | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Free | 100 | $0 |
| Pro | 10,000 | $29/mo |
| Business | 100,000 | $99/mo |
Troubleshooting
Tools don't appear in Claude after install
- Confirm the MCP server is registered: in Claude Desktop, check Settings → Connectors (or Developer) for
market-intelligence. In Claude Code, runclaude mcp list. - Restart Claude Desktop fully (quit, not just close window) — connector changes don't hot-reload.
- Verify your
BULLRUNDATA_API_KEYenv var is set and valid. Without it, tools fail at first call. - If using the remote server (
https://market.bullrundata.com/mcp) directly, complete the OAuth flow in your browser when prompted — Claude needs the bearer token before it can call tools.
401 Unauthorized from a tool
Your API key is missing, expired, or inactive. Get a fresh one at bullrundata.com/login. For the remote server flow, re-authenticate via the OAuth screen; the connector auto-provisions a free-tier key on first connect.
429 Too Many Requests
You hit your daily rate limit. Limits reset at 00:00 UTC.
| Tier | Limit |
|---|---|
| Free | 100 requests/day |
| Pro | 10,000 requests/day |
| Business | 100,000 requests/day |
Upgrade at bullrundata.com/pricing or wait for the UTC reset.
OAuth flow stuck or times out (remote server)
The remote server uses GitHub OAuth. If the redirect hangs:
- Confirm cookies and pop-ups are allowed for
market.bullrundata.comandclaude.ai - Try authorizing in an incognito window (clears cached OAuth state)
- Check that
https://market.bullrundata.com/.well-known/oauth-authorization-serverreturns 200 in your browser
First request is slow (~2–4 seconds)
Vercel cold-start latency on the serverless function. Subsequent requests in the same session should respond in <500ms.
cascade_analysis returns "live data unavailable"
The cascade tool optionally enriches with live BullrunData market data. If the upstream API is briefly unreachable, you'll still get the full catalyst tree — only the live overlay is skipped. Pass include_live_data: false to skip the live fetch entirely.
Tool returns stale data
Most economic indicators refresh on FRED's release schedule (daily for Treasury rates and equity indicators; monthly for CPI, employment, housing). Check data_freshness in dashboard_summary for the last refresh timestamp.
Still stuck
Open an issue at GitHub Issues or email support@bullrundata.com with: tool name, full error message, and approximate timestamp.
Support
- Website: bullrundata.com
- Docs: bullrundata.com/docs
- Issues: GitHub Issues
License
MIT