TeleKash MCP Server
Prediction market probability oracle for AI agents.
What is this?
TeleKash is the probability oracle for the agent economy. Real-time access to 4,500+ live prediction markets from Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket. Structured trading signals, cross-source arbitrage detection, noise filtering, and smart trade routing across crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, and science.
What makes it different:
- Multi-source — Kalshi + Polymarket + native pools, not single-exchange
- Self-calibrating — Platt scaling with daily recalibration cycles and Brier score tracking
- Universal Payment Layer — agents pay per-call with USDC (Base/Polygon/Solana via x402), fiat (Stripe), or TON
- 28 tools — from free probabilities to broker execution with 1% commission
Quick Install
npx telekash-mcp-server
Claude Code
claude mcp add telekash-oracle npx telekash-mcp-server
Claude Desktop / Cursor
Add to your MCP configuration file:
{
"mcpServers": {
"telekash-oracle": {
"command": "npx",
"args": ["telekash-mcp-server"]
}
}
}
Tools
28 tools across 4 categories. All tools work without an API key on the Free tier (100 queries/day). 4,500+ live markets.
Intelligence
| Tool | What it does | Tier |
|---|---|---|
get_probability | Real-time YES/NO probability with volume-weighted confidence score | Free |
list_markets | Browse markets by category, source, jurisdiction, with sorting | Free |
search_markets | Full-text search across 4,500+ markets | Free |
get_history | Historical probability changes over 1h, 24h, 7d, 30d | Free |
get_sentiment | AI sentiment analysis with conviction, momentum, and noise filter | Free |
get_market_stats | Aggregate statistics across all markets and sources | Free |
get_trending | Markets with the biggest probability swings | Free |
compare_sources | Kalshi vs Polymarket side-by-side odds comparison | Calibration |
Analytics
| Tool | What it does | Tier |
|---|---|---|
detect_arbitrage | Cross-source arbitrage opportunities with buy/sell signals | Calibration |
get_signal | Structured TPF signal: probability + sentiment + noise filter + verdict | Calibration |
get_divergences | Markets where sources disagree most (STRONG/MODERATE/WEAK) | Calibration |
get_edge | Kelly Criterion sizing, expected value, and risk classification | Calibration |
track_prediction | Record predictions for accuracy tracking | Calibration |
get_performance | Brier score, calibration curve, edge-vs-market analysis | Calibration |
Trading
| Tool | What it does | Tier |
|---|---|---|
execute_trade | Route trades to Kalshi, Polymarket, or native parimutuel pools | Edge |
get_order_status | Check fill status, price, and commission on broker orders | Edge |
cancel_order | Cancel pending or submitted broker orders | Edge |
get_pool_status | Native pool composition, participant counts, implied odds | Edge |
get_agent_balance | Agent balance, P&L, win rate, and pool position count | Edge |
get_resolution_status | Multi-source resolution verification and confidence levels | Edge |
create_market | Create custom binary prediction markets | Edge |
export_data | Bulk export: probability history, resolutions, catalogs, arbitrage | Edge |
Admin
| Tool | What it does | Tier |
|---|---|---|
generate_api_key | Generate a free API key (no signup required) | Free |
get_usage | Check current API usage, rate limits, and tier status | Free |
register_alert | Webhook alerts for probability crosses, mispricings, volume spikes | Edge |
list_alerts | List active webhook alerts with delivery stats | Edge |
delete_alert | Delete a webhook alert | Edge |
get_health | System health: connectivity, data freshness, broker status | Free |
Pricing
Per-query pricing. No subscriptions. Free tier requires no API key.
| Tier | Cost | Queries/Day | What you get |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free | $0 | 100 | Probabilities, search, trending, sentiment, stats, health |
| Calibration | $0.01/query | 1,000 | + Cross-source comparison, arbitrage, signals, divergence, Kelly sizing, performance tracking |
| Edge | $0.05/query | Unlimited | + Broker trading (1% commission), native pools (5% fee), webhooks, data export, market creation |
Revenue model
| Stream | Rate | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Intelligence queries | $0 - $0.05/query | Real-time probability, sentiment, signals |
| Broker trades | 1% commission | Best-price execution routed to Kalshi or Polymarket |
| Native pool trades | 5% fee at resolution | Parimutuel pools alongside Telegram users |
Universal Payment Layer
Agents can also pay per-call without an API key or tier — attach payment proof directly in tool arguments.
| Rail | Network | Asset | Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| x402 (Coinbase) | Base, Polygon, Solana | USDC | Free (0%) |
| Stripe MPP | Fiat | USD (cards, bank) | 2.9% |
| TON | TON mainnet | TON | Free (0%) |
// Agent pays per-call — no subscription needed
const result = await client.callTool({
name: "get_signal",
arguments: {
query: "Bitcoin 200K",
x402_payment: {
tx_hash: "0xabc...",
network: "base",
rail: "x402",
},
},
});
Get an API key
# Via the MCP server itself (free tier, no signup)
# Call the generate_api_key tool
# Or via Telegram
# Message @TeleKashBot with /apikey
Example
Connect to the server and query a market probability:
import { Client } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/index.js";
import { StdioClientTransport } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/stdio.js";
const transport = new StdioClientTransport({
command: "npx",
args: ["telekash-mcp-server"],
});
const client = new Client({ name: "my-agent", version: "1.0.0" });
await client.connect(transport);
// Get probability for a market
const result = await client.callTool({
name: "get_probability",
arguments: { query: "Will Bitcoin hit $200K by end of 2026?" },
});
console.log(result.content);
// => { probability: { yes: 34, no: 66 }, confidence: { grade: "HIGH", score: 82 }, ... }
More examples in the examples/ directory:
quick-start.ts-- Connect, search, get probabilitiesarbitrage-scanner.ts-- Find cross-source mispricingsportfolio-scanner.ts-- Scan markets and build a ranked portfoliomarket-monitor.ts-- Watch a market and log probability changes
Environment Variables
The server works without any credentials (returns demo data). For live market access:
SUPABASE_URL=https://rrkjtdnxkscukexbsrue.supabase.co
SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=your-anon-key
TELEKASH_API_KEY=your-api-key # Optional: enables paid tiers
TELEKASH_PAYMENT_ADDRESS=0x... # Optional: EVM wallet for x402 USDC payments
TELEKASH_TON_ADDRESS=UQ... # Optional: TON wallet for TON payments
STRIPE_SECRET_KEY=sk_... # Optional: Stripe for fiat payments
X402_FACILITATOR_URL=https://x402.org/facilitator # Default: Coinbase facilitator
Data Sources
| Source | Type | Sync Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | CFTC-regulated US exchange | Every 15 minutes |
| Polymarket | Crypto-native exchange | Every hour |
All sources are aggregated, deduplicated, and categorized automatically across 8 categories: crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, science.
Links
License
MIT